- there is a clear and obvious support to the Lizarra-Garazi Agreement in Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa;
- a clear and obvious advance of the movement for independence against pro-Spanish positions;
- a clear and obvious advance of the movement for independence against pro-Spanish positions;
EVALUATION OF ELECTORAL RESULTS
This election has been very much alike a General Election (Elections for the Spanish Parliament) or at least, there are several reasons to understand it in this way.
First of all, participation has been one of the highest in the electoral history of Araba, Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa. Abstention was 29.4%, similar to the 28.5% registered in the past General Election of 1996, where the government of the Spanish State was to be resolved.
Even before the electoral campaign started, the Spanish nationalist parties P.P and P.S.O.E. did all their best to present these polls as a general election. The main leaders of their parties at state level came together with ministers and presidents or former ministers and former presidents to canvass in the Basque Country.
Likewise, after the historic Lizarra-Garazi Agreement -which the PP and PSOE did not sign-, these parties considered this election to be a Plebiscite of self-determination, and tried to awaken the greatest passions to take the "vote of fear" to the ballot boxes. Finally, all their endeavours have resulted in a massive participation of voters, and in the fact that more than an autonomous election, these polls have seemed to be a referendum for those who agree or disagree with the Right to Self-Determination.
On the other hand, the last electoral reference point is precisely the general election of 1996 and not the autonomous elections of 1994. Therefore, when examining these elections, it is essential to make the pertinent comparisons with the elections to the Parliament of Madrid, instead of the previous polls to the Parliament in Gasteiz.
Regarding political considerations, we find that:
The P.N.V is the clear winner of the elections, with 348 000 votes accounting for 27.9% of all the votes. This party increases 32 000 votes with regard to the general election. They have got the best results since this party split in two in 1986. Surprisingly, they have got 43 000 votes more compared to the autonomous elections, but they have lost a seat in the parliament, even if they have increased 2 points with regard to the general elections. Still, this party has in fact a significant increase in votes and electoral weight.
EA, with 108 000 votes, makes up 8.7% of the whole. This party increases 5 000 votes regarding general polls, and although they have 3 000 votes more than at the autonomous elections, surprisingly again, they lose 2 seats and 1.5 points with respect to the autonomous elections, but only 0.6 points regarding general polls. In this case, the fact is that they keep their place with a slight increase in votes.
EH, with 223 000 votes beats the historic record of the Basque nationalist left: they take up 17.9% of the votes, they get 69 000 votes more than at the general polls and 63 000 more than at the autonomous polls. They got 3 seats more, and increase 1.7 points in comparison with the autonomous polls and 5.5 points with the general elections. These results show this group is the actual winner of these elections.
The P.P. gets 250 000 votes -20.1% of all the votes-, but they only increase 19 000 votes compared to the general elections. However, they got 103 000 votes more in comparison with the autonomous polls. They got 5 seats more and increase 5.6 points in relation to the autonomous elections and 1.5 points to the general polls. The P.P. clearly increases votes, which come from other Spanish groups such as the P.S.O.E. and U.A. It should be borne in mind that these are the first elections in which the P.P. is representative of the Government in Madrid, and this fact always carries many votes with it.
The P.S.O.E gets 218 000 votes representing 17.5% of the whole. This party loses 71 000 votes compared to the general elections of 1996, although they increase 44 000 votes copared to the autonomous polls of 1994. This increase in votes makes them get 2 seats more. However, they have the same percentage as at the autonomous polls and lose 6.5 points in comparison with the general polls. Against the illusion of an increase in votes, they have actually lost thousands of votes as well as their leading role among Spanish people which now belongs to the P.P.
UA gets 15 000 votes and 12% of the whole. They did not take part at the general elections where many of their votes were for the PP. The only reference point is the autonomous polls of 1994 and compared to them, they have lost 12 000 votes, 2.5 points and 3 seats. There is no doubt that they are the main losers of this election where the Spanish votes have gone for pragmatism.
IU, with 70 000 votes (1.2%) have lost 46 000 votes compared to the general polls of 1996 and 22 000 to the autonomous polls of 1994. They have lost 4 seats, 3.7 points with respect to the general polls and 3.4 to the autonomous ones. It is very clear that they have lost a large amount of votes.
Thus, the signatory parties to the Lizarra Agreement have got 746 000 votes -those who excluded themselves from this settlement only 483 000- and they have got 43 seats as opposed to 32 seats of those who did not sign the agreement.
The Basque nationalist groups make up 106 000 votes more than at the general election of 1996, and 109 000 more than at the autonomous election of 1994. Therefore, there is a high increase in the Basque nationalist votes but they keep the same 41 seats. It must be underlined that it is mainly the Basque nationalist left supporting independence that has increased the nationalist vote, although the P.N.V and E.A. have also got more votes. And moreover, it is the Basque nationalist left that makes all the nationalist keep their seats due to their increase in 3 representatives, when the P.N.V loses 1 seat and the E.A. 2 seats. The nationalist left is in a better co-relation of forces within the Basque movement for independence.
The Spanish or State groups lose 98 000 endorsements in comparison with the general elections of 1996, that is, they move back as much as the supporters of independence move forward. However, these Spanish parties get 113 000 new votes compared to the autonomous elections of 1994. The reason why is that participation at that time did not reach 60% when participation has been 70 % in this case.
There is no doubt that the P.P. is the one who has crearly profited from this increase in Spanish votes, which makes him become the clear Spanish leader, leaving the P.S.O.E. behind and practically eliminating UA in Araba. IU has never got many supporters in the Basque Country, but besides, mass-media has played a key role for their results since they first backed this party and then ignored them. Thus, they have come to be the clear losers of these polls, although in fact, they have lost less votes than the P.S.O.E. compared to the general polls of 1996.
In addition, it must be said that the most furious pro-Spanish and anti-Basque people used to reward the P.S.O.E. -the organizer of the G.A.L. and of the state repression- through ballot boxes. But today those who turned the workers' votes into Spanish votes, have now turned the Spanish votes into right votes. At present, the PP is the new manager of the state repression against the Basque Country, it is them who imprisoned the National Executive of Herri Batasuna, and closed down Egin,... And consequently, at these elections, they have also received their reward from the Spanish and anti-Basque people who have appointed them to deny democratic rights to the Basque People.
But, in fact, the actual reading of this election is the following:
Comisión de Relaciones Internacionales
Herri Batasuna
Bilbao, 26th October 1998
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